Cameroon at the Brink? Political Tensions After the Disputed 2025 Election
In the aftermath of Cameroon’s October 12, 2025 presidential election, opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary said that soldiers loyal to him escorted him to a secure location for his protection.
Tchiroma, who had been confined to his home in Garoua, expressed gratitude to what he called the “loyalist army, which has shown its patriotism by escorting me to a safe location and ensuring my protection.” His message suggested a possible split within the security forces, a deeply concerning development in a nation already marked by political divisions.
He also called for a three-day national lockdown beginning the following Monday:
“Let the entire country come to a standstill… suspend our activities, remain at home… in silence, to demonstrate our solidarity.”
These events unfolded amid rising post-election tensions across Cameroon. Cities such as Douala and Garoua saw strikes, empty streets, and shuttered businesses. The opposition claimed widespread electoral irregularities, while authorities deployed security forces and detained hundreds of protesters. Reports indicated that dozens and in some accounts, dozens more were killed in clashes with the security forces.
When an opposition leader claims loyalty from sections of the military and urges a national shutdown, while citizens already face violence and repression, the country stands on a knife-edge.
For educators, students, and observers alike, this moment invites critical questions: What happens when institutions lose credibility, security forces fragment, and public trust collapses? Cameroon appears to be at a critical juncture one where peace and order are not guaranteed.
We must ask:
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What mechanisms remain to de-escalate peacefully?
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What role can regional and international actors play?
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How can schools, markets, and commerce continue under such strain?
If the legitimacy of the vote, the conduct of the security forces, and the unity of the armed forces are all under question, then the risk of deeper violence is undeniable.
This is not inevitable but the warning signs are clear.
Is Cameroon at the Brink of Political Violence? Evidence and Warnings
Here are key strands of evidence and analysis suggesting Cameroon was in a precarious state not necessarily doomed to collapse, but facing heightened risk.
1. Escalation of Protests and State Response
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According to the UN Human Rights Office, post-election protests saw “shocking reports of people killed, injured or arrested.”
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Reuters reported that at least 48 civilians were killed by security forces during post-election protests.
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The opposition’s call for a three-day “standstill” led to widespread shutdowns — shops closed, transport halted, and cities deserted.
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Buildings linked to the ruling party were set on fire amid tensions.
These show both mass mobilisation and a forceful state response two dangerous ingredients for escalation.
2. Legitimacy Crisis and Institutional Fragility
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The Constitutional Council declared President Paul Biya the winner with roughly 53.66 percent of votes, while Tchiroma claimed 54–60 percent based on his own tally.
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Civil society and observers cited irregularities such as relocated polling stations, outdated voter registers, and a lack of transparency.
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The claim of military loyalty from an opposition leader undermined the military’s image as a neutral, stabilising force a profoundly destabilising signal.
3. Security Forces’ Loyalty and Possible Split
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Tchiroma’s statement about being escorted by loyal soldiers implied potential fractures within the armed forces.
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Analysts warned that if parts of the security establishment aligned with different political factions, the risk of violent breakdown would rise sharply.
4. Historic Fragility and Other Conflict Fronts
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Cameroon already faces armed conflict in its Anglophone regions, plus youth unemployment, poverty, and uneven development long-term pressures that can amplify unrest.
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A recent analysis warned that “post-election violence risks more conflict in fragile Cameroon.”
5. Warnings from Civil Society and International Observers
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The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) warned of “rising political unrest in Cameroon after the presidential election” and possible targeting of civilians.
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The Crisis Group urged immediate steps to defuse the “dangerous electoral standoff”, warning that Cameroon’s window for peaceful resolution was narrowing.
Summary Assessment
All the elements for serious political violence were present:
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A contested election and legitimacy crisis;
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Mass protests met with lethal repression;
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Economic paralysis and calls for civil disobedience;
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Signs of fractured loyalty within the security apparatus;
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And a historical backdrop of conflict and fragility.
While full-scale civil war was not inevitable, Cameroon in late 2025 clearly stood at an elevated risk of political violence.
Preventive diplomacy, institutional restraint, and civic resilience remain vital to avoid deeper instability.
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