Power Without Rotation

Since 1982, Paul Biya has maintained near-absolute control through a mix of constitutional manipulation, co-optation, and repression. Opposition figures who mobilize genuine popular support are rarely treated as political competitors, instead, they’re labeled as troublemakers, destabilizers, or terror sympathizers.

That label opens the door to security measures, arrests, and surveillance under the 2014 anti-terrorism law. It’s a legal weapon that equates dissent with insecurity and gives the regime a pretext to neutralize rivals.

A State That Sees Dissent as Disorder

In Cameroon’s political culture, the ruling elite has often equated stability with control. The idea of a peaceful power transition is seen as chaos waiting to happen not as a renewal of legitimacy. So, when figures like Issa Tchiroma Bakary question the integrity of an election, they threaten not only the government’s image but its very system of power distribution.

• Homes are watched.
• Party offices raided.
• Supporters detained.
• Public gatherings banned.

Exile becomes not a choice, but a survival strategy.

Historical Fear of the Alternative

Cameroon’s history of rebellion from the UPC uprisings in the 1950s to the Anglophone protests of the 2010s has made the regime hypervigilant to any perceived insurrection. That fear of political pluralism is deeply institutionalized.

Every strong opposition figure, from John Fru Ndi to Maurice Kamto, has faced harassment, arrest, or intimidation. Issa Tchiroma’s flight to Nigeria fits that same pattern the moment an opponent crosses a line of visibility or influence, the state narrows the space around them until exile becomes their only escape.

The Cost of Speaking the People’s Language

Tchiroma’s case is not unique, but it’s symbolic. When he claims victory and calls for “truth and dignity”, he is appealing to the same emotions the government has tried to suppress: collective grievance, betrayal, and demand for justice. That language resonates far beyond party politics and that’s precisely what makes it dangerous to power.

Exile as a Mirror of the Regime

Exile reveals the weakness of a state that cannot tolerate dissent inside its borders. If political candidates have to run for their lives for running for office, then the system itself is on trial not the opposition. Tchiroma’s exile is not just a personal story; it’s a symptom of a political order that treats challenge as rebellion and critique as sedition.